Authors
Giuseppe Dal Prá, Christopher Y.C. Chan, Timur Burkhanov, Nathaniel Cooke, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Roger Cremades, Carla Z. Cremer, Victor Galaz, Ajay Gambhir, Katie Heikkinen, Michael Hinge, Daniel Hoyer, Florian U. Jehn, Paul Larcey, Luke Kemp, Patrick W. Keys, Emad Kiyaei, Steven J. Lade, David Manheim, David A. McKay, Divya Pandey, Tom Pegram, Viktoria Spaiser, Kolfinna Tómasdóttir, Peter Turchin, Saskia E. Werners, Mark Workman, Nico Wunderling, Hiromi Yamashita, William J. Sutherland
Abstract
Summary based on the authors’ preprint. The study uses expert elicitation and horizon scanning to prioritize emerging or overlooked threats that could cause global catastrophes. It examines how disruptions can cascade across systems, how threats can interact, and how social and political conditions shape risk. The authors discuss how these findings can inform prevention, mitigation, and adaptation.
Journal
One Earth
Publication Details
pp. 101873
Cite This Publication
Dal Prá, G., Chan, C. Y. C., Burkhanov, T., Cooke, N., Arnscheidt, C. W., Cremades, R., Cremer, C. Z., Galaz, V., Gambhir, A., Heikkinen, K., Hinge, M., Hoyer, D., Jehn, F. U., Larcey, P., Kemp, L., Keys, P. W., Kiyaei, E., Lade, S. J., Manheim, D., … Sutherland, W. J. (2026). A horizon scan of global catastrophic risks. One Earth, Article 101873. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101873
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