Complexity scientist · Author · Founder of cliodynamics

Peter Turchin

Peter Turchin is a complexity scientist who works in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call: Cliodynamics

Peter Turchin overlooking a city

Selected Work

Latest Work
BookBeresta BooksSep 17, 2025

The Great Holocene Transformation

What Complexity Science Tells Us about the Evolution of Complex Societies

Why do the 99.9% of humanity live in large-scale societies organized as states? During the Holocene (the last 10,000 years), human societies have been transformed utterly: from small groups of nomadic foragers to our current interconnected world of large-scale societies organized as states. Population numbers, agricultural productivity, technological…

View Book
PublicationJul 9, 2026

What is society?

Theory and Society

This article engages with Mark Moffett’s proposed definition of society, which emphasizes shared group identification over social interaction, and argues for a different, problem-driven approach to definition in evolutionary social science. Rather than treating definitions as primary, I situate them within the broader research agenda aimed at explaining the Great Holocene Transformation—the dramatic expansion of human societies in scale and complexity over the past 10,000 years. My central analytical focus is on cooperation: the capacity of individuals to coordinate actions toward collective goals despite incentives to free-ride. Accordingly, society is defined here as a collective of individuals engaged in sustained cooperation, with interest group proposed as a more flexible and analytically useful term. Within this framework, polities represent a key subtype of interest groups, characterized by their role as independent political units whose persistence depends on maintaining cooperative cohesion, particularly among elites. Other commonly cited features of societies—such as group identification, territoriality, and intergenerational continuity—are treated as secondary mechanisms that support cooperation rather than defining properties. Ultimately, I argue that flexible, operational definitions are most valuable at intermediate stages of scientific inquiry, where they facilitate the construction and empirical testing of theoretical models.

View Publication
MediaApr 23, 2026

When ripples become tidal waves: Can we predict when the next global crisis will hit?

BBCArticle

Read

Latest Work

Recent publications, books, essays, lectures, scholarly reviews, Substack posts, and media appearances.

Paris en feu : pourquoi Peter Turchin avait compris les ressorts de notre chaos

MediaArticle
External
Oct 20, 2026Peggy Sastre

Dans cet éditorial, Peggy Sastre mobilise les travaux de Peter Turchin pour analyser les violences à Paris : appauvrissement des classes populaires, concurrence entre élites et affaiblissement des capacités de l’État.

Le PointStructural-Demographic TheoryPolitical Instability

"La Russie sera la troisième puissance mondiale, l’Europe se désintégrera" : les prédictions choc de Peter Turchin

MediaInterview
External
Oct 19, 2026Thomas Mahler

Entretien avec Peter Turchin à l’occasion de la parution du Déclin des empires. Il présente ses recherches sur la formation et le déclin des empires, ainsi que ses perspectives sur la Russie, la Chine, les États-Unis et les tensions politiques en Europe.

L'ExpressCliodynamicsStates and Empires

War and Peace and War: Twenty Years After

Substack
External
Oct 17, 2026Peter Turchin

And New Chinese and French Translations

Cliodynamica

Demography of Polities II

Substack
External
Oct 12, 2026Peter Turchin

France’s PolitiSequence

Cliodynamica

Demography of Polities I

Substack
External
Oct 7, 2026Peter Turchin

Do States Age?

Cliodynamica

Peter Turchin : «Surproduction d’élites, crise budgétaire… En France, les ingrédients pour une crise majeure sont réunis»

MediaInterview
External
Jun 7, 2026Ronan Planchon

ENTRETIEN - Dans son best-seller aux États-Unis Le Chaos qui vient, désormais disponible en poche en France, le spécialiste de l’évolution des sociétés* apporte un éclairage saisissant sur la crise que traversent les pays occidentaux. Sa thèse : nous produisons trop d’aspirants au pouvoir et l’histoire montre que cela finit toujours mal.

Le FigaroElites and Inequality