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Peter Turchin : «Surproduction d’élites, crise budgétaire… En France, les ingrédients pour une crise majeure sont réunis»
ENTRETIEN - Dans son best-seller aux États-Unis Le Chaos qui vient, désormais disponible en poche en France, le spécialiste de l’évolution des sociétés* apporte un éclairage saisissant sur la crise que traversent les pays occidentaux. Sa thèse : nous produisons trop d’aspirants au pouvoir et l’histoire montre que cela finit toujours mal.
America got rich and got sad. A top economist says 2020 broke something that hasn’t healed
Sam Peltzman is, by his own description, “a fossil from the last millennium.” The Ralph and Dorothy Keller Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business — one of the most cited economists of the past half century — he works without research assistants, answers to no grant committee, and studies…
Peter Turchin, Overproduction of Elites and Social Instability
Overproduction of Elites and Social Instability A Short Introduction to Cliodynamics A conversation with Peter Turchin Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub, Vienna
When ripples become tidal waves: Can we predict when the next global crisis will hit?
Spotting the events that might lead to a major period of upheaval is notoriously difficult. Could artificial intelligence be the crystal ball we need? Four hundred years ago in what is now the Czech Republic, tossing your enemy out of a window was a dramatic way to make a political statement.…
AI And The Search For History’s Hidden Laws
It is a strange irony of our digital age that our most advanced tools are being turned toward our oldest anxieties: why societies thrive and why they collapse. A new generation of scholars believes that the chaos of human events actually carries a latent geometry hidden in reams of data.…
L'âge de la discorde
Avec la cliodynamique, le mathématicien Peter Turchin entend analyser les récurrences des changements historiques au cours du temps. Sa conclusion pour éviter un effondrement de notre société ?…
The author of "Elite Overproduction Will Destroy a Nation" talks about the world and Japan in 2026 (Japanese)
The theory advocates structural-demographic theory (SDT), which explains how large societies organized as nation-states periodically experience political instability due to polarization, social divisions, and institutional dysfunction.…
Wie Kriege, Fortschritt und der Glaube an einen bestrafenden Gott zusammenhängen
Welche Mechanismen verbesserten einst die Lebensqualität des Durchschnittsbürgers? Was befeuerte den Aufstieg, was den Fall großer Reiche? Wie entsteht prosoziales Verhalten in großen Gesellschaften? Und welchen Einfluss hatten Umweltfaktoren auf den Fortschritt?…
Peter Turchin: The Collapse of Complex Societies, Elite Overproduction, and Social Unrest
Dr. Peter Turchin is Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut in the departments of ecology and evolutionary biology, anthropology, and mathematics. He is a project leader at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna and a research associate at the School of Anthropology at the University of Oxford.…
Unausweichlich abwärts? Wie Eliten die Gesellschaft vor dem Niedergang retten könnten
Viele Menschen empfinden die Welt als zerrüttet. Vor allem in Deutschland ist der Pessimismus groß. Wie kann es gelingen, die Gesellschaft zu stabilisieren? Forschende haben historische Beispiele untersucht.
„Die USA sind mitten in einer Revolution“
Komplexitätsforscher Peter Turchin hat schon vor Jahren einen politischen Umbruch in den USA vorhergesagt. Mit einer baldigen Beruhigung der Lage sei nicht zu rechnen.
Can We Predict History like the Weather? | Peter Turchin on Cliodynamics and Zohran Mamdani
Why do civilizations rise, prosper, and then collapse? Here's what the math tells us. In this episode, we sit down with Peter Turchin, complexity scientist and founder of the field of cliodynamics, which uses data and mathematical models to study the long-term cycles of history.…
New Study Uncovers How War Fueled the Rise of Complex Societies
In an ambitious leap forward for the scientific understanding of human societal evolution, Peter Turchin, a leading complexity scientist, unveils groundbreaking insights in his new book, The Great Holocene Transformation.…
En la muerte de Charlie Kirk
Peter Turchin es un biólogo matemático ruso-americano que se hizo popular hace unos años merced a otra disciplina en la que no tiene estudios formales: la Historia. Turchin es uno de los proponentes de la cliodinámica, un área de investigación que intenta proponer modelos matemáticos para los ciclos históricos por los que atraviesan las sociedades.
Ignacio Urquizu, tras el asesinato de Charlie Kirk: "Hace un año ya se decía que EEUU iba camino de una guerra civil"
El profesor de sociología Ignacio Urquizu alude al libro del politólogo Peter Turchin, Élites, contraélites y el camino a la desintegración política, publicado hace un año, para contextualizar y explicar los recientes acontecimientos en EEUU. En el vídeo, los detalles.
Warum zerfallen Gesellschaften? Weil zu viele Leute an die Spitze drängen
Der Biologe Peter Turchin sagte die politischen Entwicklungen in den USA voraus, indem er Geschichte mit Hilfe von Mathematik erforscht. Seine These: Wird die Elite zu gross, wird es gefährlich. Im Jahr 2010 bat die Wissenschaftszeitschrift «Nature» ausgewählte Forscher, eine Prognose für 2020 abzugeben.…
Delta’s struggles with the airport lounge and the angst of the upper middle class in the age of ‘elite overproduction,’ explained
Delta Air Lines is having a good 2025, reporting strong second-quarter earnings and reinstating its April profit guidance, leading to a substantial stock bump (up roughly 16% from June to July).…
Young, angry, educated — and raring to rebel
New York’s Democratic mayoral hopeful Zohran Mamdani taps into an energy mirrored in Corbynism: overqualified graduates who are pro-rent control, anti-Israel and agitating for change