Peer-Reviewed Journals
Daniel Hoyer, James S. Bennett, et al.
Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2023).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Georg Orlandi , Daniel Hoyer, et al.
Structural-demographic analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) collapse in China
PLOS ONE (2023).
Preprints
Peter Turchin, Daniel Hoyer
Empirically Testing and Refining Structural Demographic Theory: A Methodological Guide
SocArXiv Preprint (2023).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Daniel Kondor, James S Bennett, et al.
Explaining population booms and busts in Mid-Holocene Europe
Nature Scientific Reports (2023).
Preprints
Daniel Hoyer, James S Bennett, et al.
Navigating Polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate
SocArXiv Preprint (2023).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Peter Turchin
Multipath Forecasting: the Aftermath of the 2020 American Crisis
How Worlds Collapse (2023).
Preprints
Daniel Kondor, Peter Turchin
Soil fertility depletion is not a credible mechanism for population boom/bust cycles in agricultural societies
SocArXiv Preprint (2022).
Preprints
Georg Orlandi, Daniel Hoyer, et al.
Structural-Demographic Analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) Collapse in China
SocArXiv Preprint (2022).
Preprints
Jennifer Larson, Harvey Whitehouse, et al.
Moralizing Supernatural Punishment and Reward: A Response to Critics
SocArXiv Preprint (2022).
Preprints
Daniel Hoyer, James S Bennett, et al.
Flattening the Curve: Learning the lessons of world history to mitigate societal crises
SocArXiv Preprint (2022).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Harvey Whitehouse, et al.
Explaining the rise of moralizing religions: a test of competing hypotheses using the Seshat Databank
Religion, Brain & Behavior (2022).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Harvey Whitehouse, et al.
Big Gods and big science: further reflections on theory, data, and analysis
Religion, Brain & Behavior (2022).
Preprints
Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter Françoism, et al.
Testing the Big Gods Hypothesis with global historical data: a review and ‘retake’
OSF Preprints (2022).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin , Harvey Whitehouse, et al.
Disentangling the evolutionary drivers of social complexity: A comprehensive test of hypotheses
Science Advances (2022).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Turchin, P., et al.
Tempo and Mode in Cultural Macroevolution
Evolutionary Psychology (2021).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Daniel Hoyer , et al.
Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies from the Neolithic to the Industrial Revolution
PLOS ONE (2021).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, et al.
Testing the Big Gods hypothesis with global historical data: a review and “retake”
Religion, Brain & Behavior (2021).
Preprints
Peter Turchin
Multipath Forecasting: the Aftermath of the 2020 American Crisis
SocArXic Preprint (2021).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Turchin, P., et al.
An integrative approach to estimating productivity in past societies using Seshat: Global History Databank
The Holocene (2021).
Preprints
Christina Collins, Oluwole Oyebamiji, et al.
Combining historical and archaeological data with crop models to estimate agricultural productivity in past societies
SocArXiv Preprint (2020).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Whitehouse, H., et al.
A New Era in the Study of Global History Is Born but It Needs to Be Nurtured
Journal of Cognitive Historiography (2020).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Turchin, P., et al.
An Introduction to Seshat
Journal of Cognitive Historiography (2020).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin ,Andrey Korotayev
The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade: A retrospective assessment
PLOS ONE (2020).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Thomas E. Currie, Peter Turchin, et al.
Duration of agriculture and distance from the steppe predict the evolution of large-scale human societies in Afro-Eurasia
Nature (2020).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Turchin, P.; Hoyer, et al.
The Equinox2020 Seshat Data Release
Cliodynamics (2020).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Thomas E. Currie, Peter Turchin, et al.
Reply to Tosh et al.: Quantitative analyses of cultural evolution require engagement with historical and archaeological research
PNAS (2018).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Nina Witoszek, et al.
A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience
Cliodynamics (2018).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Mullins, D. A., et al.
A Systematic Assessment of “Axial Age” Proposals Using Global Comparative Historical Evidence
American Sociological Review (2018).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter N. Peregrine, Rob Brennan, et al.
Dacura: A new solution to data harvesting and knowledge extraction for the historical sciences
Historical Methods (2018).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Gronenborn, D., et al.
Social diversity, social identity, and the emergence of surplus in the western Central European Neolithic
Surplus without the State: Political Forms in Prehistory (2018).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
Translating Knowledge about Past Societies into Seshat Data
Cliodynamics (2018).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Pieter Francois, Stephanie Grohmann, et al.
Engineering Agile Big-Data Systems Chapter 7: Evaluation
River Publishers Series in Software Engineering (2018).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
Fitting Dynamic Regression Models to Seshat Data
Cliodynamics (2018).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin, Thomas E. Currie , et al.
Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization
PNAS (2017).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Sergey Gavrilets, et al.
Linking “Micro” to “Macro” Models of State Breakdown to Improve Methods for Political Forecasting
Cliodynamics (2017).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Peter Turchin
Henrich, Joseph. 2015. The Secret of Our Success: How Culture Is Driving Human Evolution, Domesticating Our Species, and Making Us Smarter.
Evolutionary Studies in Imaginary Cultures (2017).
Nature/Science/PNAS
J. Brewer, M. Gelfand, et al.
Grand challenges for the study of cultural evolution
Nature Ecology & Evolution (2017).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Peter Turchin
What Economics Models Really Say. A Review of Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science by Dani Rodrik (Norton, 2015)
Cliodynamics (2017).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Currie, Thomas E., et al.
Complexity and Evolution: Toward a New Synthesis for Economics
The MIT Press (2016).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin
Mine the past for patterns
Nature 535: 488-489 (2016).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Thomas E. Currie, et al.
Mapping the Spread of Mounted Warfare
Cliodynamics (2016).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Brennan, Rob; Feeney, et al.
Building the Seshat Ontology for a Global History Databank
The Semantic Web. Latest Advances and New Domains (2016).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Thomas E. Currie
Cultural group selection is plausible, but the predictions of its hypotheses should be tested with real-world data
Behavioral and Brain Sci (2016).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Rob Brennan, et al.
Seshat: The Global History Databank
Cliodynamics (2015).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Thomas E. Currie, Amy Bogaard, et al.
Agricultural productivity in past societies: Toward an empirically informed model for testing cultural evolutionary hypotheses
Cliodynamics (2015).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, et al.
The Role of Ritual in the Evolution of Social Complexity: Five Predictions and a Drum Roll
Cliodynamics (2015).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin
Cultivating human culture: Did food and fuel help shape our value systems?
Science 348: 508 (2015).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
The SESHAT Databank Project: the 2014 Report
Cliodynamics (2014).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
Cultural Evolution and Cliodynamics
Cliodynamics (2014).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin, Thomas Currie, et al.
Reply to Thomas: Diffusion of militarytechnologies is a plausible explanation for theevolution of social complexity, 1500 BCE–AD 1500
PNAS (2014).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Fiona M. Jordan, Carel van Schaik, et al.
Cultural evolution of the structure of human groups
MIT Press (2013).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Peter Turchin
The Puzzle of Human Ultrasociality: How Did Large-Scale Complex Societies Evolve?
Cambridge: MIT Press (2013).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin, Thomas E. Currie, et al.
War, space, and the evolution of Old World complex societies
PNAS (2013).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability
Cliodynamics (2013).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
The West and the Rest: The Science of the Great Divergence
Cliodynamics (2013).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
Religion and empire in the Axial Age
Religion, Brain & Behavior (2012).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
Dynamics of political instability in the United States, 1780–2010
Journal of Peace Research (2012).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Turchin, Peter;Whitehouse, et al.
A Historical Database of Sociocultural Evolution
Cliodynamics (2012).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
Social Tipping Points and Trend Reversals – A Historical Approach
Vestnik Moskovkogo Universiteta, Series XXVII Globalistika (2011).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Ilia Peiros, et al.
Analyzing Genetic Connections between Languages by Matching Consonant Classes
Journal of Language Relationship (2010).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin
Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade
Nature (2010).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
Warfare and the Evolution of Social Complexity: A Multilevel-Selection Approach
Structure and Dynamics (2010).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Gavrilets, Sergey;Anderson, et al.
Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies
Cliodynamics (2010).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin, Walter Scheidel
Coin hoards speak of population declines in Ancient Rome
PNAS (2009).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Sergey Gavrilets
Evolution of Complex Hierarchical Societies
Social Evolution & History (2009).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
A theory for formation of large empires
Journal Of Global History (2009).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
Long-Term Population Cycles in Human Societies
The Year in Ecology and Conservation Biology 2009 (2009).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin
Arise ‘cliodynamics’
Nature (2008).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Peter Turchin
Building Nations after Conflict
Nature 453: 986-987 (2008).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Peter Turchin
Modeling periodic waves of integration in the Afro-Eurasian world-system
Routledge (2008).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Thomas Hall, Peter Turchin
Lessons from Population Ecology for World-Systems Analyses of Long-Distance Synchrony
The World System and the Earth System (2007).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Peter Turchin
Perspective of Mathematical History (Russian)
History and Mathematics (2007).
Book Chapters and Reviews
P.V. Turchin, L.E. Grinin, et al.
General empirical patterns in dynamics, cliodynamics, and demographic-structural theory (Russian)
History and Mathematics (2007).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Andrey Korotayev
Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration
Social Evolution and History (2006).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Jonathan M. Adams, et al.
East-West Orientation of Historical Empires and Modern States
Journal of World-Systems Research (2006).
Book Chapters and Reviews
P. Turchin, L. Grinin, et al.
Scientific prediction in historical sociology: Ibn Khaldun meets Al Saud
History and Mathematics (2006).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin, Mikhail S. Burtsev
Evolution of cooperative strategies from first principles
Nature (2006).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Turchin, Peter; Korotayev, et al.
Why do we need models of historical dynamics
History and Mathematics (2006).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Christopher Chase-Dunn, Thomas D. Hall, et al.
World-Systems in the Biogeosphere: Urbanization, State Formation and Climate Change Since the Iron Age
The World System and the Earth System (2006).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
Response to Oscillations in Population Sizes – From Ecology to History
Structure and Dynamics (2005).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
A Primer on Statistical Analysis of Dynamical Systems in Historical Social Sciences (with a Particular Emphasis on Secular Cycles)
Structure and Dynamics (2005).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States
Structure and Dynamics (2005).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin
Evolution in population dynamics
Nature (2003).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
Does population ecology have general laws?
Oikos (2003).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Thomas D. Hall
Spatial Synchrony Among and Within World-Systems: Insights From Theoretical Ecology
Journal of Worlds-Systems Research (2003).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Stephen P. Ellner, Edward McCauley, et al.
Habitat structure and population persistence in an experimental community
Nature (2001).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Stephen P. Ellner
Living on the Edge of Chaos: Population Dynamics of Fennoscandian Voles
Ecology (2000).
Nature/Science/PNAS
P. Turchin, L. Oksanen, et al.
Are lemmings prey or predators?
Nature (2000).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin, A. D. Taylor, et al.
Dynamical Role of Predators in Population Cycles of a Forest Insect: An Experimental Test
Science (1999).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin
Fractal Analyses of Animal Movement: A Critique
Ecology (1996).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Ilkka Hanski
An Empirically Based Model for Latitudinal Gradient in Vole Population Dynamics
American Naturalist (1996).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Stephen Ellner, Peter Turchin
Chaos in a Noisy World: New Methods and Evidence from Time-Series Analysis
American Naturalist (1995).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Andrew D. Taylor
Complex Dynamics in Ecological Time Series
Ecology (1992).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin
Rarity of density dependence or population regulation with lags?
Nature (1990).