Publications

Preprints
Daniel Hoyer, Samantha Holder, et al.

All Crises are Unhappy in their Own Way: The role of societal instability in shaping the past

SocArXiv Preprint (2024).
Preprints
Peter Turchin

Empirically Testing Predictions of an Attrition Warfare Model for the War in Ukraine

SocArXiv Preprint (2023).
Preprints
Daniel Kondor. James S Bennett, Detlef Gronenborn, et al.

Landscape of Fear: Indirect effects of conflict can account for large-scale population declines in non-state societies

SocArXiv Preprint (2023).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Daniel Hoyer, James S. Bennett, et al.

Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2023).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Georg Orlandi , Daniel Hoyer, et al.

Structural-demographic analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) collapse in China

PLOS ONE (2023).
Preprints
Peter Turchin, Daniel Hoyer

Empirically Testing and Refining Structural Demographic Theory: A Methodological Guide

SocArXiv Preprint (2023).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Daniel Kondor, James S Bennett, et al.

Explaining population booms and busts in Mid-Holocene Europe

Nature Scientific Reports (2023).
Preprints
Zhiwu Chen, Peter Turchin, et al.

War and the origins of Chinese civilization

SSRN (2023).
Preprints
Daniel Hoyer, James S Bennett, et al.

Navigating Polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate

SocArXiv Preprint (2023).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Peter Turchin

Multipath Forecasting: the Aftermath of the 2020 American Crisis

How Worlds Collapse (2023).
Preprints
Daniel Kondor, Peter Turchin

Soil fertility depletion is not a credible mechanism for population boom/bust cycles in agricultural societies

SocArXiv Preprint (2022).
Preprints
Georg Orlandi, Daniel Hoyer, et al.

Structural-Demographic Analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) Collapse in China

SocArXiv Preprint (2022).
Preprints
Jennifer Larson, Harvey Whitehouse, et al.

Moralizing Supernatural Punishment and Reward: A Response to Critics

SocArXiv Preprint (2022).
Preprints
Daniel Hoyer, James S Bennett, et al.

Flattening the Curve: Learning the lessons of world history to mitigate societal crises

SocArXiv Preprint (2022).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Harvey Whitehouse, et al.

Explaining the rise of moralizing religions: a test of competing hypotheses using the Seshat Databank

Religion, Brain & Behavior (2022).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Harvey Whitehouse, et al.

Big Gods and big science: further reflections on theory, data, and analysis

Religion, Brain & Behavior (2022).
Preprints
Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter Françoism, et al.

Testing the Big Gods Hypothesis with global historical data: a review and ‘retake’

OSF Preprints (2022).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin , Harvey Whitehouse, et al.

Disentangling the evolutionary drivers of social complexity: A comprehensive test of hypotheses

Science Advances (2022).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Turchin, P., et al.

Tempo and Mode in Cultural Macroevolution

Evolutionary Psychology (2021).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Daniel Hoyer , et al.

Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies from the Neolithic to the Industrial Revolution

PLOS ONE (2021).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, et al.

Testing the Big Gods hypothesis with global historical data: a review and “retake”

Religion, Brain & Behavior (2021).
Preprints
Peter Turchin

Multipath Forecasting: the Aftermath of the 2020 American Crisis

SocArXic Preprint (2021).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Turchin, P., et al.

An integrative approach to estimating productivity in past societies using Seshat: Global History Databank

The Holocene (2021).
Preprints
Christina Collins, Oluwole Oyebamiji, et al.

Combining historical and archaeological data with crop models to estimate agricultural productivity in past societies

SocArXiv Preprint (2020).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Whitehouse, H., et al.

A New Era in the Study of Global History Is Born but It Needs to Be Nurtured

Journal of Cognitive Historiography (2020).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Turchin, P., et al.

An Introduction to Seshat

Journal of Cognitive Historiography (2020).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin ,Andrey Korotayev

The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade: A retrospective assessment

PLOS ONE (2020).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Thomas E. Currie, Peter Turchin, et al.

Duration of agriculture and distance from the steppe predict the evolution of large-scale human societies in Afro-Eurasia

Nature (2020).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Turchin, P.; Hoyer, et al.

The Equinox2020 Seshat Data Release

Cliodynamics (2020).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Thomas E. Currie, Peter Turchin, et al.

Reply to Tosh et al.: Quantitative analyses of cultural evolution require engagement with historical and archaeological research

PNAS (2018).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Nina Witoszek, et al.

A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience

Cliodynamics (2018).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Mullins, D. A., et al.

A Systematic Assessment of “Axial Age” Proposals Using Global Comparative Historical Evidence

American Sociological Review (2018).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter N. Peregrine, Rob Brennan, et al.

Dacura: A new solution to data harvesting and knowledge extraction for the historical sciences

Historical Methods (2018).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Gronenborn, D., et al.

Social diversity, social identity, and the emergence of surplus in the western Central European Neolithic

Surplus without the State: Political Forms in Prehistory (2018).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

Translating Knowledge about Past Societies into Seshat Data

Cliodynamics (2018).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Pieter Francois, Stephanie Grohmann, et al.

Engineering Agile Big-Data Systems Chapter 7: Evaluation

River Publishers Series in Software Engineering (2018).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

Fitting Dynamic Regression Models to Seshat Data

Cliodynamics (2018).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin, Thomas E. Currie , et al.

Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization

PNAS (2017).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Sergey Gavrilets, et al.

Linking “Micro” to “Macro” Models of State Breakdown to Improve Methods for Political Forecasting

Cliodynamics (2017).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Peter Turchin

Henrich, Joseph. 2015. The Secret of Our Success: How Culture Is Driving Human Evolution, Domesticating Our Species, and Making Us Smarter.

Evolutionary Studies in Imaginary Cultures (2017).
Nature/Science/PNAS
J. Brewer, M. Gelfand, et al.

Grand challenges for the study of cultural evolution

Nature Ecology & Evolution (2017).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Peter Turchin

What Economics Models Really Say. A Review of Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science by Dani Rodrik (Norton, 2015)

Cliodynamics (2017).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Currie, Thomas E., et al.

Complexity and Evolution: Toward a New Synthesis for Economics 

The MIT Press (2016).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin

Mine the past for patterns

Nature 535: 488-489 (2016).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Thomas E. Currie, et al.

Mapping the Spread of Mounted Warfare

Cliodynamics (2016).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Brennan, Rob; Feeney, et al.

Building the Seshat Ontology for a Global History Databank

The Semantic Web. Latest Advances and New Domains (2016).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Thomas E. Currie

Cultural group selection is plausible, but the predictions of its hypotheses should be tested with real-world data

Behavioral and Brain Sci (2016).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Rob Brennan, et al.

Seshat: The Global History Databank

Cliodynamics (2015).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Thomas E. Currie, Amy Bogaard, et al.

Agricultural productivity in past societies: Toward an empirically informed model for testing cultural evolutionary hypotheses

Cliodynamics (2015).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, et al.

The Role of Ritual in the Evolution of Social Complexity: Five Predictions and a Drum Roll

Cliodynamics (2015).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin

Cultivating human culture: Did food and fuel help shape our value systems?

Science 348: 508 (2015).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

The SESHAT Databank Project: the 2014 Report

Cliodynamics (2014).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

Cultural Evolution and Cliodynamics

Cliodynamics (2014).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin, Thomas Currie, et al.

Reply to Thomas: Diffusion of militarytechnologies is a plausible explanation for theevolution of social complexity, 1500 BCE–AD 1500

PNAS (2014).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Fiona M. Jordan, Carel van Schaik, et al.

Cultural evolution of the structure of human groups

MIT Press (2013).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Peter Turchin

The Puzzle of Human Ultrasociality: How Did Large-Scale Complex Societies Evolve?

Cambridge: MIT Press (2013).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin, Thomas E. Currie, et al.

War, space, and the evolution of Old World complex societies

PNAS (2013).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability

Cliodynamics (2013).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

The West and the Rest: The Science of the Great Divergence

Cliodynamics (2013).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

Religion and empire in the Axial Age

Religion, Brain & Behavior (2012).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

Dynamics of political instability in the United States, 1780–2010

Journal of Peace Research (2012).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Turchin, Peter;Whitehouse, et al.

A Historical Database of Sociocultural Evolution

Cliodynamics (2012).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

Social Tipping Points and Trend Reversals – A Historical Approach

Vestnik Moskovkogo Universiteta, Series XXVII Globalistika (2011).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Ilia Peiros, et al.

Analyzing Genetic Connections between Languages by Matching Consonant Classes

Journal of Language Relationship (2010).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin

Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade

Nature (2010).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

Warfare and the Evolution of Social Complexity: A Multilevel-Selection Approach

Structure and Dynamics (2010).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Gavrilets, Sergey;Anderson, et al.

Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies

Cliodynamics (2010).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin, Walter Scheidel

Coin hoards speak of population declines in Ancient Rome

PNAS (2009).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Sergey Gavrilets

Evolution of Complex Hierarchical Societies

Social Evolution & History (2009).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

A theory for formation of large empires

Journal Of Global History (2009).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

Long-Term Population Cycles in Human Societies

The Year in Ecology and Conservation Biology 2009 (2009).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin

Arise ‘cliodynamics’

Nature (2008).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Peter Turchin

Building Nations after Conflict

Nature 453: 986-987 (2008).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Peter Turchin

Modeling periodic waves of integration in the Afro-Eurasian world-system

Routledge (2008).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Thomas Hall, Peter Turchin

Lessons from Population Ecology for World-Systems Analyses of Long-Distance Synchrony

The World System and the Earth System (2007).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Peter Turchin

Perspective of Mathematical History (Russian)

History and Mathematics (2007).
Book Chapters and Reviews
P.V. Turchin, L.E. Grinin, et al.

General empirical patterns in dynamics, cliodynamics, and demographic-structural theory (Russian)

History and Mathematics (2007).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Andrey Korotayev

Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration

Social Evolution and History (2006).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Jonathan M. Adams, et al.

East-West Orientation of Historical Empires and Modern States

Journal of World-Systems Research (2006).
Book Chapters and Reviews
P. Turchin, L. Grinin, et al.

Scientific prediction in historical sociology: Ibn Khaldun meets Al Saud

History and Mathematics (2006).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin, Mikhail S. Burtsev

Evolution of cooperative strategies from first principles

Nature (2006).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Turchin, Peter; Korotayev, et al.

Why do we need models of historical dynamics

History and Mathematics (2006).
Book Chapters and Reviews
Christopher Chase-Dunn, Thomas D. Hall, et al.

World-Systems in the Biogeosphere: Urbanization, State Formation and Climate Change Since the Iron Age

The World System and the Earth System (2006).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

Response to Oscillations in Population Sizes – From Ecology to History

Structure and Dynamics (2005).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

A Primer on Statistical Analysis of Dynamical Systems in Historical Social Sciences (with a Particular Emphasis on Secular Cycles)

Structure and Dynamics (2005).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States

Structure and Dynamics (2005).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin

Evolution in population dynamics

Nature (2003).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

Does population ecology have general laws?

Oikos (2003).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Thomas D. Hall

Spatial Synchrony Among and Within World-Systems: Insights From Theoretical Ecology

Journal of Worlds-Systems Research (2003).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Stephen P. Ellner, Edward McCauley, et al.

Habitat structure and population persistence in an experimental community

Nature (2001).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Stephen P. Ellner

Living on the Edge of Chaos: Population Dynamics of Fennoscandian Voles

Ecology (2000).
Nature/Science/PNAS
P. Turchin, L. Oksanen, et al.

Are lemmings prey or predators?

Nature (2000).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin, A. D. Taylor, et al.

Dynamical Role of Predators in Population Cycles of a Forest Insect: An Experimental Test

Science (1999).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin

Fractal Analyses of Animal Movement: A Critique

Ecology (1996).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Ilkka Hanski

An Empirically Based Model for Latitudinal Gradient in Vole Population Dynamics

American Naturalist (1996).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Stephen Ellner, Peter Turchin

Chaos in a Noisy World: New Methods and Evidence from Time-Series Analysis

American Naturalist (1995).
Peer-Reviewed Journals
Peter Turchin, Andrew D. Taylor

Complex Dynamics in Ecological Time Series

Ecology (1992).
Nature/Science/PNAS
Peter Turchin

Rarity of density dependence or population regulation with lags?

Nature (1990).
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