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America got rich and got sad. A top economist says 2020 broke something that hasn’t healed
Sam Peltzman is, by his own description, “a fossil from the last millennium.” The Ralph and Dorothy Keller Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business — one of the most cited economists of the past half century — he works without research assistants, answers to no grant committee, and studies…
When ripples become tidal waves: Can we predict when the next global crisis will hit?
Spotting the events that might lead to a major period of upheaval is notoriously difficult. Could artificial intelligence be the crystal ball we need? Four hundred years ago in what is now the Czech Republic, tossing your enemy out of a window was a dramatic way to make a political statement.…
AI And The Search For History’s Hidden Laws
It is a strange irony of our digital age that our most advanced tools are being turned toward our oldest anxieties: why societies thrive and why they collapse. A new generation of scholars believes that the chaos of human events actually carries a latent geometry hidden in reams of data.…
L'âge de la discorde
Avec la cliodynamique, le mathématicien Peter Turchin entend analyser les récurrences des changements historiques au cours du temps. Sa conclusion pour éviter un effondrement de notre société ?…
The author of "Elite Overproduction Will Destroy a Nation" talks about the world and Japan in 2026 (Japanese)
The theory advocates structural-demographic theory (SDT), which explains how large societies organized as nation-states periodically experience political instability due to polarization, social divisions, and institutional dysfunction.…
Wie Kriege, Fortschritt und der Glaube an einen bestrafenden Gott zusammenhängen
Welche Mechanismen verbesserten einst die Lebensqualität des Durchschnittsbürgers? Was befeuerte den Aufstieg, was den Fall großer Reiche? Wie entsteht prosoziales Verhalten in großen Gesellschaften? Und welchen Einfluss hatten Umweltfaktoren auf den Fortschritt?…
Unausweichlich abwärts? Wie Eliten die Gesellschaft vor dem Niedergang retten könnten
Viele Menschen empfinden die Welt als zerrüttet. Vor allem in Deutschland ist der Pessimismus groß. Wie kann es gelingen, die Gesellschaft zu stabilisieren? Forschende haben historische Beispiele untersucht.
En la muerte de Charlie Kirk
Peter Turchin es un biólogo matemático ruso-americano que se hizo popular hace unos años merced a otra disciplina en la que no tiene estudios formales: la Historia. Turchin es uno de los proponentes de la cliodinámica, un área de investigación que intenta proponer modelos matemáticos para los ciclos históricos por los que atraviesan las sociedades.
Ignacio Urquizu, tras el asesinato de Charlie Kirk: "Hace un año ya se decía que EEUU iba camino de una guerra civil"
El profesor de sociología Ignacio Urquizu alude al libro del politólogo Peter Turchin, Élites, contraélites y el camino a la desintegración política, publicado hace un año, para contextualizar y explicar los recientes acontecimientos en EEUU. En el vídeo, los detalles.
Warum zerfallen Gesellschaften? Weil zu viele Leute an die Spitze drängen
Der Biologe Peter Turchin sagte die politischen Entwicklungen in den USA voraus, indem er Geschichte mit Hilfe von Mathematik erforscht. Seine These: Wird die Elite zu gross, wird es gefährlich. Im Jahr 2010 bat die Wissenschaftszeitschrift «Nature» ausgewählte Forscher, eine Prognose für 2020 abzugeben.…
Delta’s struggles with the airport lounge and the angst of the upper middle class in the age of ‘elite overproduction,’ explained
Delta Air Lines is having a good 2025, reporting strong second-quarter earnings and reinstating its April profit guidance, leading to a substantial stock bump (up roughly 16% from June to July).…
Young, angry, educated — and raring to rebel
New York’s Democratic mayoral hopeful Zohran Mamdani taps into an energy mirrored in Corbynism: overqualified graduates who are pro-rent control, anti-Israel and agitating for change
Municipales : dans les grandes métropoles, la frustration des surdiplômés, carburant politique de LFI
ANALYSE - Une étude de Cluster 17 pour la Fondation Jean Jaurès, publiée le 10 juin, montre que les diplômés précaires sont surreprésentés dans les grandes métropoles.…
The Scholar Who Predicted America's Breakdown Says It's Just Beginning
Fifteen years ago, smack in the middle of Barack Obama's first term, amid the rapid rise of social media and a slow recovery from the Great Recession, a professor at the University of Connecticut issued a stark warning: the United States was heading into a decade of growing political instability. It sounded somewhat contrarian at the time.…
Estas son las nuevas élites que dominan el mundo: más poderosas e intervencionistas que nunca
La percepción de las personas más privilegiadas por el resto de la sociedad se deteriora a gran velocidad debido a su creciente influencia y riqueza, y pone a prueba el sistema Vista desde fuera, la guerra de Donald Trump contra las universidades de élite es difícil de justificar.…
The Alienated ‘Knowledge Class’ Could Turn Violent
Societies that exile their intellectuals risk turning them into revolutionaries. It happened in the 1970s. In the 1970s, Western democracies faced a wave of political violence. In the U.S., a radical left-wing group called the Weather Underground bombed federal buildings to protest the Vietnam War.…
Peut-on prédire les révoltes populaires grâce à l’intelligence artificielle et aux mathématiques ?
Soulèvements, révolutions, émeutes... Et si les révoltes populaires obéissaient à des lois mathématiques précises ? Grâce au big data et à l’intelligence artificielle, des scientifiques pensent avoir percé le code secret des transformations collectives.
L'histoire en une seule loi (French)
Traduit pour la première fois en France, l’anthropologue Peter Turchin analyse la face noire du capitalisme à travers des recherches transdisciplinaires et pointe les facteurs générateurs de chaos : surproduction d’élites, ploutocratie, inégalités de richesse et de revenus.