General empirical patterns in dynamics, cliodynamics, and demographic-structural theory (Russian)

P.V. Turchin, L.E. Grinin, SYu Malkov, and A.V. Korotayev
History and Mathematics January 1, 2007 PDF


Are there general patterns in history? It is clear that the ancient China is not medieval France; between the Han empire and the kingdom Capetians there is a huge number of differences. However, the existence of differences does not exclude the possibility of commonalities. For example, Mars and Saturn too differ from each other - in color, size, presence of rings, distance from sun, etc. But they also have common features - the trajectories of the movement of both planets around the sun are described by the same regularity. Therefore we have the right to ask whether there are common features characterizing the dynamics, for example, agrarian states (such as the Han empire and the French kingdom)? Or each historical state is unique and inimitable in all its aspect
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