Peter Turchin

War in Ukraine III: an Interim Assessment

Sixteen months into the war the final outcome of this conflict is still uncertain. Public statements from both sides continue to express unbounded confidence in their eventual victory (see, for example, Russia’s Strategic Failure and Ukraine’s Secure Future). But which way has the advantage swung, is known only to the … Read more

An Intermediate Retrospective on Ages of Discord

The publisher of the Japanese translation of Ages of Discord (about to be published) requested a foreword, which presented me with a welcome opportunity to review how this book has fared, and to place it within my overall—long-term—research program attempting to understand the causes of recurrent waves of social and political … Read more

Religion Is Different

Social life of human beings was utterly transformed during the Holocene. Agriculture, large-scale organized warfare, elites, rulers, bureaucracies, writing, and monumental architecture evolved independently in many world regions at markedly different times. These are truly universal features of complex human societies. Moralizing religion is different. I recently finished writing a … Read more

Scribe at Work

What I am working on: Update

Six months ago I posted a “progress report”, What I am working on. Since then a lot of things happened. First, I finished writing my trade book, previously titled A History of the Near Future. As expected, the publisher didn’t like it, so the new title is The Wealth Pump: … Read more

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