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New Ways of Looking into Past

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How we can reconstruct and visualize history has been much on my mind this week (when I was not consuming and digesting turkey, that is). First, I ran another micro-workshop on Monday and Tuesday. While during the last week’s workshop we designed the overall architecture of the database, in the second workshop we sat down with two highly accomplished and knowledgeable historians and started pouring content into the database. One of the two polities (states)  that we were coding was the Roman Principate. This is the Roman Empire in its classic form, from the end of the civil wars of the first century BCE to the end of the civil wars of the third century CE. The second state was the Ptolemaic Kingdom, which was ruled by the dynasty established by one of Alexander’s generals in Egypt.

I was surprised (pleasantly) how well the coding went. In two days we coded about a hundred variables for both polities, focusing on social complexity, warfare, and ritual. Especially interesting and new to me was the data on rituals, because until I became involved in the project led by Harvey Whitehouse, which is one of the two research grants that currently support construction of the database, I did not pay much attention to rituals. Yet rituals are very important – they are one of the most important psychological mechanisms for building social cohesion. So if we want to understand how ancient societies functioned and, in particular, build up social cohesion that is the basis for cooperative action, we have to figure out their ritual life. And we need to test our theories about the role of rituals in social evolution. In particular, how they helped (and continue helping) to integrate large societies.

But in addition to the research value of what we were doing, it was just fascinating for me to learn the historical details (at least, what is known) and thus gain a glimpse into the life in the ancient Mediterranean. A big part of the reason why I am doing history research is that I enjoy history for its own sake.

Both Rome and Ptolemaic Egypt had their state religions, but in addition there was a multitude of mystery cults that were quite similar across the whole Mediterranean region. For example, the Cult of Isis originated in Egypt but spread to the rest of the Mediterranean during the Ptolemaic period.

We are interested in the mystery cults because we want to know about ‘dysphoric’ rituals, and initiation mysteries were apparently the most common kind of a dysphoric ritual in Antiquity. ‘Dysphoric’ is the opposite of euphoric; such rituals typically involved some kind of unpleasantness. It could range from mild forms, such as fasting, vigil, to more extreme – being frightened, humiliation, pain, mutilation (including tattooing), and even the risk of death. The most common dysphoric ritual in the modern world is hazing that new initiates into gangs or military units have to endure.

We know very little about the nature of initiation rites in the mystery cults, because they were kept secret. But sometimes we gain a little glimpse into that hidden world. Most scholars (but not all) agree that the famous sequence of frescoes in the Villa of the Mysteries in Pompeii depicts an initiation of a young woman into the Dionysus cult. The dysphoric elements of the ritual possibly include her being scared by something:

and flagellation:

As a final note, there are lots of arguments about exactly what is depicted on these frescoes, and some scholars even disagree that they depict an initiation rite. But we are extremely lucky to have even this much information. For most other cults we know nothing about their dysphoric rituals.

This is of course one of the central issues for historians - how we can reconstruct and imagine what it “really looked like” in the past. A good illustration is the Roman Forum, or what’s left of it. It is extremely hard to imagine what it looked like, when all you have to go on is this:

By an interesting coincidence, just as I was thinking about this issue (what is knowable and what is not in history), I received an e-mail notice of a new journal, Digital Applications in Archaeology and Cultural Heritage. It’s editor-in-chief, Bernard Frischer, is also the director of the project called “Rome Reborn,” a digital model of Ancient Rome. Here’s what the Roman Forum looks like, according to this the reconstruction:

This is a very worthwhile project. It looks like the digital humanities are finally coming into its own. What we do with the historical database is oriented more at the scientific side of things, but there are also many other initiatives that will also enhance our enjoyment of history, such as those that digitally reconstruct ancient cities and societies. And it is going to get much better. A few years ago there was a wildly popular video game, Assassin’s Creed, in which the main character traveled in historical cities (and in three dimensions – he could climb up on the roofs and travel across them). The player got to visit wonderful historical places, meet interesting people (kill them…). This screenshot shows how well-textured a historical reconstruction can look like, if you throw lots of $$ into the project:

Once the programming prowess of video game developers is combined with the specialized knowledge of expert historians – and eventually this will happen – we will have a virtual time machine. And I want this machine to take me not just to Ancient Rome, but to Hellenistic Alexandria, Persepolis during the Achaemenid Dynasty, Luoyang and Kaifeng, and Tikal during the height of the Mayan civilization.

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Figuring Out the Past: The 3,495 Vital Statistics that Explain World History

Nov 17, 2020Turchin, P., Hoyer, D.

Discover the world records that define our history and jump headfirst into the past using scientific data that reveals accurate and insightful answers to life’s biggest questions.

What was history's biggest empire? Or the tallest building of the ancient world? What was the plumbing like in medieval Byzantium? The average wage in the Mughal Empire? Where did scientific writing first emerge? What was the bloodiest ever ritual human sacrifice? We are used to thinking about history in terms of stories. Yet we understand our own world…

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The scientific understanding of the complex dynamics of global history – from the rise and spread of states to their declines and falls, from their peaceful interactions with economic or diplomatic exchanges to violent confrontations – requires, at its core, a consistent and explicit encoding of historical political entities, their locations, extents and durations. Numerous attempts have been made to produce digital geographical compendia of polities with different time depths and resolutions. Most have been limited in scope and many of the more comprehensive geospatial datasets must either be licensed or are stored in proprietary formats, making access for scholarly analysis difficult. To address these issues we have developed Cliopatria, a comprehensive open-source geospatial dataset of worldwide states from 3400BCE to 2024CE. Presently it comprises over 1600 political entities sampled at varying timesteps and spatial scales. Here, we discuss its construction, its scope, and its current limitations.

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Soil fertility depletion presents a negative feedback mechanism that could have impacted early adopters of agriculture. We consider whether such feedback can lead to population cycles among early agriculturalists, such as the boom-and-bust patterns suggested by an increasing amount of evidence for Neolithic Europe. Using general mathematical arguments, we show that this is unlikely, due to the interplay of two factors. First, there is an important mathematical difference between biotic (i.e., logistic) and abiotic resource replenishment; soil nutrients are better modeled by the abiotic case, which leads to more stable dynamics. Second, under realistic conditions, the resource replenishment process operates on fast time scales compared to attainable population growth rates, reinforcing the tendency towards stable dynamics. Both these factors are relevant for early agricultural societies and imply that nutrient depletion is likely not the main contributing factor to boom-and-bust cycles observed in the archaeological record.

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The scientific understanding of the complex dynamics of global history – from the rise and spread of states to their declines and falls, from their peaceful interactions with economic or diplomatic exchanges to violent confrontations – requires, at its core, a consistent and explicit encoding of historical political entities, their locations, extents and durations. Numerous attempts have been made to produce digital geographical compendia of polities with different time depths and resolutions. Most have been limited in scope and many of the more comprehensive geospatial datasets must either be licensed or are stored in proprietary formats, making access for scholarly analysis difficult. To address these issues we have developed Cliopatria, a comprehensive open-source geospatial dataset of worldwide states, political groups, events, and rulers from 3400BCE to 2024CE. Presently it comprises over 1800 political entities sampled at varying timesteps and spatial scales. Here, we discuss its construction, its scope, and its current limitations.

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All Crises are Unhappy in their Own Way: The role of societal instability in shaping the past

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Societal ‘crises’ are periods of turmoil and destabilization in socio-cultural, political, economic, and other systems, often accompanied by varying amounts of violence and sometimes significant changes in social structure. The extensive literature analyzing societal crises has concentrated on relatively few historical examples (large-scale events such the fall of the Roman Empire or the French and Russian Revolutions) emphasizing different aspects of these events as potential causes or consistent effects. To investigate crises and prior approaches to explaining them, and to avoid a potential small-sample size bias present in several previous studies, we sought to uniformly characterize a substantial collection of historical crises, spanning millennia, from the prehistoric to post-industrial, and afflicting a wide range of polities in diverse global regions; the Crisis Database (CrisisDB). Here, we describe this dataset which comprises 168 crises suggested by historians and characterized by a number of significant 'consequences' (such as civil war, epidemics, or loss of population) including also institutional and cultural reforms (for example improved sufferance or constitutional changes) that might occur during and immediately following the crisis period. Our analyses show that the consequences experienced by each crisis is highly variable. The outcomes themselves are uncorrelated with one another and, overall, the set of consequences is largely unpredictable when compared to other large-scale properties of society suggested by previous scholars such as its territorial size, religion, administrative size, or historical recency. We conclude that there is no ‘typical’ societal crisis of the past, but crisis situations can take a variety of different directions. We offer some suggestions on the forces that might drive these varying consequences for exploration in future work.

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Climate variability and natural hazards like floods and earthquakes can act as environmental shocks or socioecological stressors leading to instability and suffering throughout human history. Yet, societies experience a wide range of outcomes when facing such challenges: some suffer from social unrest, civil violence or complete collapse; others prove more resilient and maintain key social functions. We currently lack a clear, generally agreed-upon conceptual framework and evidentiary base to explore what causes these divergent outcomes. Here, we discuss efforts to develop such a framework through the Crisis Database (CrisisDB) programme. We illustrate that the impact of environmental stressors is mediated through extant cultural, political and economic structures that evolve over extended timescales (decades to centuries). These structures can generate high resilience to major shocks, facilitate positive adaptation, or, alternatively, undermine collective action and lead to unrest, violence and even societal collapse. By exposing the ways that different societies have reacted to crises over their lifetime, this framework can help identify the factors and complex social–ecological interactions that either bolster or undermine resilience to contemporary climate shocks.

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