Preprints

Preprints
Daniel Hoyer, Samantha Holder, et al.

All Crises are Unhappy in their Own Way: The role of societal instability in shaping the past

SocArXiv Preprint (2024).
Preprints
Peter Turchin

Empirically Testing Predictions of an Attrition Warfare Model for the War in Ukraine

SocArXiv Preprint (2023).
Preprints
Daniel Kondor. James S Bennett, Detlef Gronenborn, et al.

Landscape of Fear: Indirect effects of conflict can account for large-scale population declines in non-state societies

SocArXiv Preprint (2023).
Preprints
Peter Turchin, Daniel Hoyer

Empirically Testing and Refining Structural Demographic Theory: A Methodological Guide

SocArXiv Preprint (2023).
Preprints
Zhiwu Chen, Peter Turchin, et al.

War and the origins of Chinese civilization

SSRN (2023).
Preprints
Daniel Hoyer, James S Bennett, et al.

Navigating Polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate

SocArXiv Preprint (2023).
Preprints
Daniel Kondor, Peter Turchin

Soil fertility depletion is not a credible mechanism for population boom/bust cycles in agricultural societies

SocArXiv Preprint (2022).
Preprints
Georg Orlandi, Daniel Hoyer, et al.

Structural-Demographic Analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) Collapse in China

SocArXiv Preprint (2022).
Preprints
Jennifer Larson, Harvey Whitehouse, et al.

Moralizing Supernatural Punishment and Reward: A Response to Critics

SocArXiv Preprint (2022).
Preprints
Daniel Hoyer, James S Bennett, et al.

Flattening the Curve: Learning the lessons of world history to mitigate societal crises

SocArXiv Preprint (2022).
Preprints
Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter Françoism, et al.

Testing the Big Gods Hypothesis with global historical data: a review and ‘retake’

OSF Preprints (2022).
Preprints
Peter Turchin

Multipath Forecasting: the Aftermath of the 2020 American Crisis

SocArXic Preprint (2021).
Preprints
Christina Collins, Oluwole Oyebamiji, et al.

Combining historical and archaeological data with crop models to estimate agricultural productivity in past societies

SocArXiv Preprint (2020).

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