Elites, political disintegration, and ‘cliodynamics’

Andrew Curry Resilience July 5, 2023 Link


In his recent book End Times, Peter Turchin tries to lay out his story about social, political, and economic change for a popular audience. The book is given added immediacy by its publisher’s subtitle: “Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration”. I know Turchin’s work quite well, and I know his underlying model well enough, and I think that End Times fails in this objective. I’ll come back to why this is later on, but first a bit of background on the underlying model and its intellectual history….

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