Nero-Moments: How Collapse of Social Trust Leads to State Breakdown

Intro:

Public trust in the US federal government has sunk to a new low. According to Pew Research Center, the proportion of Americans, who said they trusted the government “just about always” or “most of the time,” declined from a peak of 77% in 1964 to just 16% in 2023.1 This negative trend has huge implications, because the collapse of trust in the state’s institutions undermines its ability to keep internal peace and order. As the legitimacy of our institutions wanes, the stability of our society becomes increasingly tenuous. However, as our historical research shows, people typically fail to recognize that their society might suddenly crumble around them.