Back in 2010, when Nature magazine asked leading scientists to provide a ten-year forecast, Turchin used his models to predict that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order circa 2020. The years since have proved his prediction more and more accurate, and End Times reveals why.
Figuring Out The Past: The 3,495 Vital Statistics that Explain World History
What was the tallest building of the ancient world? Or the average life expectancy in medieval Byzantium? Where did scientific writing first emerge? What was the bloodiest ritual human sacrifice ever?
Ages of Discord
Historical analysis shows that long spells of equitable prosperity and internal peace are succeeded by protracted periods of inequity, increasing misery, and political instability. These crisis periods—“Ages of Discord”—have recurred in societies throughout history
Follow Peter Turchin on an epic journey through time. From stone-age assassins to the orbiting cathedrals of the space age, from bloodthirsty god-kings to India’s first vegetarian emperor, discover the secret history of our species—and the evolutionary logic that governed it all.
Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for long-term oscillations—what the authors call secular cycles.
War and Peace and War
Turchin argues that the key to the formation of an empire is a society’s capacity for collective action. This kind of cooperation led to the formation of the Roman and Russian empires, and the United States.
Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns.
Complex Population Dynamics
Why do organisms become extremely abundant one year and then seem to disappear a few years later? Why do population outbreaks in particular species happen more or less regularly in certain locations, but only irregularly (or never at all) in other locations?
Quantitative Analysis of Movement
The spatial dimension—the interplay between environmental heterogeneity and individual movement—is an extremely important aspect of ecological dynamics.
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