Peter Turchin

Who Are the Elites?

“Elites” (and “elite overproduction”) are key concepts in the structural-demographic theory (SDT). In this blog post I’d like to explain the meaning of this term. This is especially important because the popular usage (see Liberal Elite) has very little in common with the sociological definition (which is how it’s used … Read more

The Presidential Election of 2016 through the Lens of Cliodynamics

This article was first published on Evonomics Cliodynamics is a new “transdisciplinary discipline” that treats history as just another science. Ten years ago I started applying its tools to the society I live in: the United States. What I discovered alarmed me. My research showed that about 40 seemingly disparate … Read more

The Road to Disunion

Several years ago I started a research project whose goal was to apply the structural-demographic theory to the American history (see Sticking My Neck Out). As I started collecting data, I began seeing connections between seemingly unrelated trends affecting the American society during the last three decades. For example, as … Read more

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