This is not a complete collection of my publications (for the complete list, see my CV). The focus is on my social science publications, with some of my favorite ecology papers thrown in.
Articles in Nature, Science, and PNAS
Turchin, Peter, Thomas E. Currie, Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, Kevin Feeney, Daniel Mullins, Daniel Hoyer, et al. 2018. “Quantitative Historical Analysis Uncovers a Single Dimension of Complexity That Structures Global Variation in Human Social Organization.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (2): E144–51.
Turchin, Peter, Thomas E. Currie, Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, Kevin Feeney, Daniel Mullins, Daniel Hoyer, et al. 2018. “Reply to Tosh et al.: Quantitative analyses of cultural evolution require engagement with historical and archaeological research.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (26): E5841-5842.
Brewer, J., M. Gelfand, J. C. Jackson, I. F. MacDonald, P. N. Peregrine, P. J. Richerson, P. Turchin, H. Whitehouse & D. S. Wilson. 2017. “Grand challenges for the study of cultural evolution.” Nature Ecology and Evolution 1. doi: 10.1038/s41559-017-0070.
Turchin, P., T.E. Currie, E.A.L. Turner, and S. Gavrilets. 2014. “Reply to Thomas: Diffusion of military technologies is a plausible explanation for the evolution of social complexity, 1500 BCE–AD 1500.” PNAS 111(4): E415.
Turchin, P. 2010. “Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade.” Nature 463: 608. (If it’s behind the paywall, download PDF here)
Ellner, S.P., E. McCauley, B.E. Kendall, C.J. Briggs, P.R. Hosseini, S.N. Wood, A. Janssen, M.W. Sabelis, P. Turchin, R.M. Nisbet, and W.W. Murdoch. 2001. “Habitat structure and population persistence in an experimental community.” Nature 412: 538-543.
Turchin P, Whitehouse H, Korotayev A, Francois P, Hoyer D, Peregrine P, Feinman G, Spencer C, Kradin N, Currie TE. 2018. Evolutionary Pathways to Statehood: Old Theories and New Data. SocArXiv Preprint.
Articles in Other Peer-Reviewed Journals
Mullins, Daniel Austin, Daniel Hoyer, Christina Collins, Thomas Currie, Kevin Feeney, Pieter François, Patrick E. Savage, Harvey Whitehouse, and Peter Turchin. 2018. “A Systematic Assessment of ‘Axial Age’ Proposals Using Global Comparative Historical Evidence.” American Sociological Review 83 (3): 596–626. doi: 10.1177/0003122418772567.
Peregrine, Peter N., Rob Brennan, Thomas Currie, Kevin Feeney, Pieter François, Peter Turchin, and Harvey Whitehouse. 2018. “Dacura: A new solution to data harvesting and knowledge extraction for the historical sciences.” Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History 51(3): 165-174.
Turchin, Peter, Sergey Gavrilets, and Jack A. Goldstone. 2017. “Linking ‘Micro’ to ‘Macro’ Models of State Breakdown to Improve Methods for Political Forecasting.” Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution 8 (2): 77–99.
François, Pieter, Joseph Manning, Harvey Whitehouse, Rob Brennan, Thomas Currie, Kevin Feeney, and Peter Turchin. 2016. “A Macroscope for Global History: Seshat Global History Databank, a Methodological Overview.” Digital Humanities Quarterly 10 (4).
Whitehouse, Harvey, Pieter François, and Peter Turchin. 2015. “The Role of Ritual in the Evolution of Social Complexity: Five Predictions and a Drum Roll.” Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution 6 (2): 199-216.
Currie, Thomas, Amy Bogaard, Rudolf Cesaretti, Neil R. Edwards, Pieter François, Philip Holden, Daniel Hoyer, Peter Turchin, et. al. 2015. “Agricultural Productivity in Past Societies: Toward an Empirically Informed Model for Testing Cultural Evolutionary Hypotheses.” Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution 6 (1): 24–56.
Turchin, Peter, Rob Brennan, Thomas E. Currie, Kevin C. Feeney, Pieter François, Daniel Hoyer, J. G. Manning, Arkadiusz Marciniak, Daniel Mullins, Alessio Palmisano, Peter Peregrine, Edward A. L. Turner, and Harvey Whitehouse. 2015. “Seshat: The Global History Databank.” Cliodynamics 6 (1): 77–107.
Book Chapters and Reviews
Francois, Pieter, Stephanie Grohmann, Katja Eck, Odhran Gavin, Andreas Koller, Helmut Nagy, Christian Dirschl, Peter Turchin and Harvey Whitehouse. 2018. “Evaluation.” In Engineering Agile Big-Data Systems, edited by Kevin Feeney et al. San Francisco, CA: River Publishers.
Gronenborn, D., H.C. Strien, P. Turchin, and R. v. Dick. 2018. “Social Diversity, Social Identity and the Emergence of Surplus in the Western-Central European Neolithic.” In Surplus without the State: Political Forms in Prehistory, edited by H. Meller, D. Gronenborn, and R. Risch, 201-222. Halle: Tagungen des Landesmuseums Vorgeschichte.
Turchin, Peter. 2017. “What Economics Models Really Say. A Review of Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science by Dani Rodrik (Norton, 2015).” Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution 8 (1): 80-84. doi: 10.21237/C7clio8135587.
Turchin, Peter. 2017. “Henrich, Joseph. 2015. The Secret of Our Success: How Culture Is Driving Human Evolution, Domesticating Our Species, and Making Us Smarter.” Evolutionary Studies in Imaginary Cultures 1(1).
Currie, Thomas E., Peter Turchin, Jenna Bednar, Peter J. Richerson, Gerog Schwesinger, Sven Steinmo, Romain Wacziarg, and John Wallis. 2016. “Evolution of Institutions and Organizations. Complexity and Evolution: Toward a New Synthesis for Economics,” edited by D. S. Wilson and A. Kirman, Strüngmann Forum Reports, vol. 19, J. Lupp, series editor. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Brennan, Rob; Feeney, Kevin; Mendel-Gleason, Gavin; Bozic, Bojan; Turchin, Peter; Whitehouse, Harvey; François, Pieter; Currie, Thomas; Grohmann, Stephanie. 2016. “Building the Seshat Ontology for a Global History Databank.” The Semantic Web. Latest Advances and New Domains, 13th International Conference, ESWC 2016, Proceedings, LNCS, edited by H. Sack, Blomqvist, E., d’Aquin, M., Ghidini, C., Paolo Ponzetto, S., Lange, C., vol. 9678, 693-708. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-34129–3_42.
Turchin, P. 2013. “The Puzzle of Human Ultrasociality: How Did Large-Scale Complex Societies Evolve?” In Cultural Evolution, edited by P. J. Richerson and Morten H. Christiansen, 67-73. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Jordan, Fiona M., Carel van Schaik, Pieter François, Herbert Gintis, Daniel B. M. Haun, Daniel J. Hruschka, Marco A. Janssen, James A. Kitts, Laurent Lehmann, Sarah Mathew, Peter J. Richerson, Peter Turchin, and Polly Wiessner. 2013. “Cultural Evolution of the Structure of Human Groups.” In Cultural Evolution, edited by P. J. Richerson and Morten H. Christiansen, 87-116. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Turchin, P. 2008. “Modeling periodic waves of integration in the Afro-Eurasian world-system.” In Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling Global Change, edited by George Modelski, Tessaleno Devezas, and William R. Thompson, 163-191. New York: Routledge. (PDF of the proofs).
Turchin, P.V. 2007. “General empirical patterns in dynamics, cliodynamics, and demographic-structural theory.” In History and Mathematics: Conceptual Landscape and Research Directions (in Russian), edited by P.V. Turchin, L.E. Grinin, SYu Malkov, and A.V. Korotayev, 248-251. Moscow: URSS. (Preprint PDF).
Turchin, P.V. 2007. “Perspective of mathematical history.” In History and Mathematics: Conceptual Landscape and Research Directions (in Russian), edited by P.V. Turchin, L.E. Grinin, SYu Malkov, and A.V. Korotayev, 8-18. Moscow: URSS. (Preprint PDF).
Hall, T.D. and P. Turchin. 2007. “Lessons from population ecology for world-systems analyses of long-distance synchrony.” In The World System and the Earth System: Global socioenvironmental change and sustainability since the Neolithic, edited A. Hornborg and C. Crumley, 74-90. Walnut Creek, CA: Left Coast Press.
Chase-Dunn, C., T.D. Hall, and P. Turchin. 2007. “World-systems in the biogeosphere: urbanization, state formation and climate change since the Iron Age.” In The World System and the Earth System: Global socioenvironmental change and sustainability since the Neolithic, edited by A. Hornborg and C. Crumley, 132-148. Walnut Creek, CA: Left Coast Press.
Turchin, P., A. Korotayev, L. Grinin. 2006. “Why do we need models of historical dynamics.” In History and Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies, edited by P. Turchin, L. Grinin, A. Korotayev, and V.C. Munck, 4-8. URSS, Moscow.
Turchin, P. 2006. “Scientific prediction in historical sociology: Ibn Khaldun meets Al Saud.” In History and Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies, edited by P. Turchin, L. Grinin, A. Korotayev, and V.C. de Munck, 9-38. Moscow: URSS. (Preprint PDF).