In the aftermath of the Brussels terror attack many will call for a military solution to the Islamic State problem. Yet the new science of Cliodynamics predicts that the long-term result of the military victory over ISIS will be the opposite of what is intended.
I can’t think of any other large organization in the modern world that could match the Islamic State in pure evil. From mass executions to sexual slavery to the destruction of cultural monuments—it seems ISIS wants to leave no bases uncovered.
Now ISIS claims the responsibility for the today’s terrorist attacks in Brussels. As reported in the Washington Post:
A group of the soldiers of the caliphate, wrapped in explosive belts and carrying explosive devices and machine guns, launched to target sites carefully chosen in Brussels, the capital of Belgium, to immerse inside Brussels airport and the metro station and kill a number of Crusaders, before detonating their explosive belts amidst their groupings. The result of the attacks was the killing of more than 40 and the wounding of no less than 210 of the citizens of the Crusader states, and unto Allah is all praise, gratitude, and grace.
The carnage in Brussels will reignite the debate on what should be done about the Islamic State. It will put additional pressure on Western leaders, and most importantly Barack Obama, to do more to defeat the Islamic State (as discussed in another Washington Post article today). Yet intensifying military pressure on the Islamic State, or even destroying it in Iraq and Syria, will generate precisely the opposite result of what is intended.
Why do I think so? I explain in Part II.